Predicting Chinese State-Owned Enterprise Policy Incidence

Abstract

In this exploratory research, we examine the effect of economic and noneconomic indicators on the creation of Chinese state-owned enterprise policies. Using machine learning time series methods, we find indicators that explain over 50% of the policy creation variance with a one-month lag, which means that we can predict, to a great extent, the incidence of state-owned enterprise policies. We find evidence that SOE policies fall into a strong time trend, and that China’s government strongly telegraphs its upcoming SOE policies through government-funded research and the government newspaper, People’s Daily.

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